When to Lock In a Fixed Electricity Rate in Texas (Seasonal Guide)
Texas wholesale electricity is ERCOT-governed and follows a textbook seasonal curve: prices drop in fall and early winter, bottom out around February, rise gradually through spring, and spike hard from June through September when air conditioning load peaks. Retail fixed-rate plans reflect this pattern on a lag — retailers price in expected summer risk when they publish 12-month contracts. Understanding this curve lets you shop at the right moment instead of whenever you happen to notice your bill.
Best months to lock in: January through early April
The cheapest 12-month fixed-rate Texas electricity plans of the year almost always appear between mid-January and early April. Wholesale prices are near their annual low, retailers are competing for contract renewals from customers whose 12-month plans signed the previous spring are expiring, and summer risk pricing hasn't kicked in yet. If your contract ends between March and June, shop 30-45 days before expiration and you'll hit this window. Effective rates in the 9-11¢/kWh range are realistic in this period.
Worst months to lock in: June through early September
If you shop during the summer peak, retailers have already baked in the expected heat risk and you'll pay 1.5-2¢/kWh more on the same exact plan than someone who locked in in February. On a 1,200 kWh household that's roughly $20-24/month, or $250-290/year. If your contract expires during the summer months, the right move is often a short-term 3 or 6-month variable rate to bridge into the fall, then lock into a 12 or 24-month fixed in October or November when prices stabilize.
Variable-rate plans are DANGEROUS as a default long-term choice. Texas summer wholesale prices have historically spiked 3-5x in a single bad month (remember February 2021). Only use variable plans as a deliberate bridge — never as a forever-home.
The 30-45 day shopping window rule
- •Day 45 before contract end: start watching Power to Choose + Voltcheckr for plans matching your usage profile
- •Day 30 before contract end: if a clearly better plan is available, lock it in with a start date matching your current contract's end (retailers let you schedule the switch)
- •Day 14 before contract end: Texas law lets you switch without paying ETF — last chance
- •Day 0: if you've done nothing, your retailer moves you to a month-to-month variable rate that's typically 2-4¢/kWh more expensive than your fixed contract was
Upload your current bill and Voltcheckr tells you exactly where you are in the seasonal cycle, whether now is a good time to lock in, and which 12-month plans win at your usage right now.
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